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Alcobendas Sport vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
3/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Alcobendas Sport40%
×Draw27%
Pozuelo Alarcón32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.29
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.12

Alcobendas Sport creates 15% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 97 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
68%
Alcobendas Sport or Pozuelo Alarcón
73%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
60%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
18%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
72%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
37%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
14%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
67%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
31%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
56%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
40%
level
27%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
32%

Alcobendas Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 4–3 Pozuelo Alarcón

Alcobendas Sport beat Pozuelo Alarcón 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.