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Pozoblanco vs Inter Sevilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 21Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pozoblanco54%
×Draw25%
Inter Sevilla22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.64
Inter Sevilla
0.94

Pozoblanco creates 74% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Inter Sevilla
0.82

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Inter Sevilla
1.82

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Inter Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
78%
Pozoblanco or Inter Sevilla
75%
Draw or Inter Sevilla
46%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
29%
Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
81%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
49%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
23%
Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
61%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
24%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
71%
Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
54%
level
25%
Inter Sevilla scores more
22%

Pozoblanco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozoblanco vs Inter Sevilla

Pozoblanco beat Inter Sevilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.