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Inter Sevilla vs Pozoblanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla28%
×Draw25%
Pozoblanco47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.14
Pozoblanco
1.56

Pozoblanco creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
Pozoblanco
0.94

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
Pozoblanco
1.58

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Pozoblanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
53%
Inter Sevilla or Pozoblanco
75%
Draw or Pozoblanco
72%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
11%
Pozoblanco wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
68%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
32%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
11%
Pozoblanco 1+ goals
79%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
46%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
37%
Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Pozoblanco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Pozoblanco defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pozoblanco attack 0.94 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
28%
level
25%
Pozoblanco scores more
47%

Pozoblanco at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Sevilla vs Pozoblanco

Inter Sevilla and Pozoblanco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Gines.