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Power Dynamos vs Nkwazi — Super League 2019

Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nkwazi
Nkwazi
4/9/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Power Dynamos46%
×Draw31%
Nkwazi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Power Dynamos
1.16
Nkwazi
0.72

Power Dynamos creates 61% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Power Dynamos
1.38
Nkwazi
0.82

allows per match

Power Dynamos
0.62
Nkwazi
0.93

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par
Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Nkwazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw
77%
Power Dynamos or Nkwazi
69%
Draw or Nkwazi
54%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+
20%
Nkwazi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals
69%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
32%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
11%
Nkwazi 1+ goals
51%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
16%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
67%
Nkwazi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Power Dynamos scores more
46%
level
31%
Nkwazi scores more
23%

Power Dynamos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Power Dynamos vs Nkwazi

Power Dynamos beat Nkwazi 2-0 in Super League on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.