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Nkwazi vs Power Dynamos — Super League 2019

Nkwazi
Nkwazi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
12/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkwazi29%
×Draw33%
Power Dynamos39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkwazi
0.81
Power Dynamos
1.00

Power Dynamos creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Nkwazi
0.85
Power Dynamos
1.18

allows per match

Nkwazi
0.82
Power Dynamos
0.78

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par
Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Power Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw
61%
Nkwazi or Power Dynamos
67%
Draw or Power Dynamos
71%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+
9%
Power Dynamos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals
56%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
19%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
5%
Power Dynamos 1+ goals
63%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
26%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)
42%
Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Power Dynamos away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Power Dynamos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Power Dynamos attack 1.18 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nkwazi scores more
29%
level
33%
Power Dynamos scores more
39%

Power Dynamos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nkwazi vs Power Dynamos

Power Dynamos beat Nkwazi 3-1 in Super League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.