Power Dynamos 1–1 Konkola Blades: Result & Stats

Power Dynamos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Konkola Blades

1/12/2024

Super League · Round 20Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Power Dynamos51%

×Draw30%

Konkola Blades19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Power DynamosExpected goals in this matchKonkola Blades

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.65

Power Dynamos

1.25

Konkola Blades

0.65

Power Dynamos creates 92% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 50 away

1.38

creates per match

0.68

0.62

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Power Dynamos

1.38

Konkola Blades

0.68

allows per match

Power Dynamos

0.62

Konkola Blades

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Konkola Blades →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw

81%

Power Dynamos or Konkola Blades

70%

Draw or Konkola Blades

49%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+

23%

Konkola Blades wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals

71%

Power Dynamos 2+ goals

36%

Power Dynamos 3+ goals

13%

Konkola Blades 1+ goals

48%

Konkola Blades 2+ goals

14%

Konkola Blades 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)

72%

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Konkola Blades away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Konkola Blades defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Konkola Blades attack 0.68 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Power Dynamos scores more

51%

level

30%

Konkola Blades scores more

19%

Power Dynamos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff