Konkola Blades 0–0 Power Dynamos: Result & Stats

Konkola Blades

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Power Dynamos

9/2/2023

Super League · Round 3Konkola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Konkola Blades29%

×Draw33%

Power Dynamos38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Konkola BladesExpected goals in this matchPower Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.99

Konkola Blades

0.83

Power Dynamos

0.99

Power Dynamos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

0.88

creates per match

1.18

0.80

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Konkola Blades

0.88

Power Dynamos

1.18

allows per match

Konkola Blades

0.80

Power Dynamos

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konkola Blades ↓

Power Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Konkola Blades or draw

62%

Konkola Blades or Power Dynamos

67%

Draw or Power Dynamos

71%

Winning margin

Konkola Blades wins by 2+

10%

Power Dynamos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Konkola Blades 1+ goals

56%

Konkola Blades 2+ goals

20%

Konkola Blades 3+ goals

5%

Power Dynamos 1+ goals

63%

Power Dynamos 2+ goals

26%

Power Dynamos 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)

44%

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konkola Blades at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Power Dynamos away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konkola Blades attack 0.88 + Power Dynamos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Power Dynamos attack 1.18 + Konkola Blades defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Konkola Blades scores more

29%

level

33%

Power Dynamos scores more

38%

Power Dynamos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff