Povltava FA 4–0 Písek: Result & Stats

Povltava FA

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Písek

8/25/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 3Stadion Štěchovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Povltava FA43%

×Draw24%

Písek33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Povltava FAExpected goals in this matchPísek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.42

Povltava FA

1.67

Písek

1.42

Povltava FA creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 84 away

1.44

creates per match

1.36

1.48

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Povltava FA

1.44

Písek

1.36

allows per match

Povltava FA

1.48

Písek

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Povltava FA+0.00on par

Písek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Povltava FA ↓

Písek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Povltava FA or draw

67%

Povltava FA or Písek

76%

Draw or Písek

57%

Winning margin

Povltava FA wins by 2+

22%

Písek wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Povltava FA 1+ goals

81%

Povltava FA 2+ goals

50%

Povltava FA 3+ goals

23%

Písek 1+ goals

76%

Písek 2+ goals

41%

Písek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Povltava FA (draw refunded)

57%

Písek (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Povltava FA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

Písek away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Povltava FA attack 1.44 + Písek defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Písek attack 1.36 + Povltava FA defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Povltava FA scores more

43%

level

24%

Písek scores more

33%

Povltava FA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Povltava FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff