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Písek vs Povltava FA — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Písek
Písek
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Povltava FA
Povltava FA
3/2/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 16UMT Burketova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Písek50%
×Draw23%
Povltava FA28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Písek
1.88
Povltava FA
1.36

Písek creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 64 away

creates per match

Písek
1.66
Povltava FA
1.58

allows per match

Písek
1.15
Povltava FA
2.09

finishing

Písek+0.00on par
Povltava FA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Písek ↓

Povltava FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Písek or draw
72%
Písek or Povltava FA
77%
Draw or Povltava FA
50%

Winning margin

Písek wins by 2+
28%
Povltava FA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Písek 1+ goals
85%
Písek 2+ goals
56%
Písek 3+ goals
29%
Povltava FA 1+ goals
74%
Povltava FA 2+ goals
39%
Povltava FA 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Písek (draw refunded)
64%
Povltava FA (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Písek at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

Povltava FA away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Písek attack 1.66 + Povltava FA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

Povltava FA attack 1.58 + Písek defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Písek scores more
50%
level
23%
Povltava FA scores more
28%

Písek at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Písek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Písek vs Povltava FA

Povltava FA beat Písek 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Burketova in Písek.