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Povltava FA vs Motorlet Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Povltava FA
Povltava FA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
11/5/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Stadion Štěchovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Povltava FA40%
×Draw25%
Motorlet Praha35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Povltava FA
1.49
Motorlet Praha
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 84 away

creates per match

Povltava FA
1.44
Motorlet Praha
1.30

allows per match

Povltava FA
1.48
Motorlet Praha
1.54

finishing

Povltava FA+0.00on par
Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Povltava FA ↓

Motorlet Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Povltava FA or draw
65%
Povltava FA or Motorlet Praha
75%
Draw or Motorlet Praha
60%

Winning margin

Povltava FA wins by 2+
19%
Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Povltava FA 1+ goals
77%
Povltava FA 2+ goals
44%
Povltava FA 3+ goals
19%
Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
75%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
40%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Povltava FA (draw refunded)
53%
Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Povltava FA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Povltava FA attack 1.44 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.49

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + Povltava FA defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Povltava FA scores more
40%
level
25%
Motorlet Praha scores more
35%

Povltava FA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Povltava FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Povltava FA 1–2 Motorlet Praha

Motorlet Praha beat Povltava FA 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Štěchovice in Štěchovice.