Motorlet Praha 1–2 Povltava FA: Result & Stats

Motorlet Praha

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Povltava FA

6/1/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 29Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Motorlet Praha45%

×Draw23%

Povltava FA32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motorlet PrahaExpected goals in this matchPovltava FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.48

Motorlet Praha

1.81

Povltava FA

1.48

Motorlet Praha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 64 away

1.54

creates per match

1.58

1.39

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Motorlet Praha

1.54

Povltava FA

1.58

allows per match

Motorlet Praha

1.39

Povltava FA

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Povltava FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motorlet Praha ↓

Povltava FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Motorlet Praha or draw

68%

Motorlet Praha or Povltava FA

77%

Draw or Povltava FA

55%

Winning margin

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+

25%

Povltava FA wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals

84%

Motorlet Praha 2+ goals

54%

Motorlet Praha 3+ goals

27%

Povltava FA 1+ goals

77%

Povltava FA 2+ goals

43%

Povltava FA 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)

59%

Povltava FA (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motorlet Praha at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

Povltava FA away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motorlet Praha attack 1.54 + Povltava FA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.81

Povltava FA attack 1.58 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Motorlet Praha scores more

45%

level

23%

Povltava FA scores more

32%

Motorlet Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Motorlet Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff