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Považská Bystrica vs Viktoria Otrokovice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
12/7/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Považská Bystrica41%
×Draw20%
Viktoria Otrokovice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.23
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
2.25
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.43

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
1.88
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.21

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
61%
Považská Bystrica or Viktoria Otrokovice
80%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
59%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
89%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
65%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
38%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
88%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
63%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
52%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.25 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 2.43 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
41%
level
20%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
39%

Považská Bystrica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Považská Bystrica 2–3 Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Považská Bystrica 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on December 7, 2023.