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Považská Bystrica vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
CANC
14:00
Nitra II
Nitra II
4/18/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 21Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Považská Bystrica77%
×Draw14%
Nitra II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.67
Nitra II
0.78

Považská Bystrica creates 242% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
2.91
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
0.70
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
91%
Považská Bystrica or Nitra II
86%
Draw or Nitra II
23%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
56%
Nitra II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
93%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
74%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
49%
Nitra II 1+ goals
54%
Nitra II 2+ goals
18%
Nitra II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
90%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.91 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.67

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Považská Bystrica defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
77%
level
14%
Nitra II scores more
9%

Považská Bystrica at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Považská Bystrica face Nitra II (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Považská Bystrica hosting Nitra II. Match starts April 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Považská Bystrica host Nitra II at Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.