Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nitra II vs Považská Bystrica — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra II
Nitra II
FT
1 – 3
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
9/13/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nitra II32%
×Draw21%
Považská Bystrica47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra II
1.78
Považská Bystrica
2.19

Považská Bystrica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

creates per match

Nitra II
2.57
Považská Bystrica
2.24

allows per match

Nitra II
2.14
Považská Bystrica
1.00

finishing

Nitra II+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra II ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Nitra II or draw
53%
Nitra II or Považská Bystrica
79%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
68%

Winning margin

Nitra II wins by 2+
16%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Nitra II 1+ goals
83%
Nitra II 2+ goals
53%
Nitra II 3+ goals
26%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
89%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
64%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Nitra II (draw refunded)
40%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra II attack 2.57 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Považská Bystrica attack 2.24 + Nitra II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nitra II scores more
32%
level
21%
Považská Bystrica scores more
47%

Považská Bystrica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nitra II 1–3 Považská Bystrica

Považská Bystrica beat Nitra II 3-1 in 3. liga - West on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom in Nitra.