Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Považská Bystrica vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marcelová
Marcelová
5/28/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Považská Bystrica70%
×Draw17%
Marcelová13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.48
Marcelová
0.99

Považská Bystrica creates 151% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
2.91
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
0.70
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
87%
Považská Bystrica or Marcelová
83%
Draw or Marcelová
30%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
47%
Marcelová wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
92%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
70%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
44%
Marcelová 1+ goals
63%
Marcelová 2+ goals
26%
Marcelová 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
84%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.91 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.48

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Považská Bystrica defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
70%
level
17%
Marcelová scores more
13%

Považská Bystrica at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Považská Bystrica vs Marcelová

Považská Bystrica beat Marcelová 3-0 in 3. liga - West on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica in Považská Bystrica.