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Marcelová vs Považská Bystrica — 3. liga - West 2020

Marcelová
Marcelová
CANC
15:00
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
6/6/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marcelová28%
×Draw26%
Považská Bystrica46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcelová
1.12
Považská Bystrica
1.50

Považská Bystrica creates 34% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Marcelová
1.24
Považská Bystrica
2.24

allows per match

Marcelová
0.76
Považská Bystrica
1.00

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw
54%
Marcelová or Považská Bystrica
74%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
72%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+
11%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals
67%
Marcelová 2+ goals
31%
Marcelová 3+ goals
10%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
78%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
44%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)
38%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Považská Bystrica attack 2.24 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marcelová scores more
28%
level
26%
Považská Bystrica scores more
46%

Považská Bystrica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Marcelová host Považská Bystrica

June 6, 2021: Marcelová take on Považská Bystrica in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.