Považská Bystrica 1–3 Malženice: Result & Stats

Považská Bystrica

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Malženice

9/19/2025

2. liga · Round 9Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Považská Bystrica51%

×Draw23%

Malženice26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchMalženice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.26

Považská Bystrica

1.84

Malženice

1.26

Považská Bystrica creates 46% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 43 away

1.81

creates per match

1.14

1.38

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Malženice

1.14

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Malženice

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Malženice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

74%

Považská Bystrica or Malženice

77%

Draw or Malženice

49%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

28%

Malženice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

84%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

55%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

28%

Malženice 1+ goals

72%

Malženice 2+ goals

36%

Malženice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

66%

Malženice (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Malženice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Malženice attack 1.14 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

51%

level

23%

Malženice scores more

26%

Považská Bystrica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff