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Malženice vs Považská Bystrica — 2. liga 2019

Malženice
Malženice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
3/2/20252. liga2. liga · Round 15Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Malženice45%
×Draw25%
Považská Bystrica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
1.52
Považská Bystrica
1.17

Malženice creates 30% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 58 away

creates per match

Malženice
1.49
Považská Bystrica
1.29

allows per match

Malženice
1.05
Považská Bystrica
1.55

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
71%
Malženice or Považská Bystrica
75%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
55%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
23%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
78%
Malženice 2+ goals
45%
Malženice 3+ goals
20%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
69%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
33%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
61%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 1.49 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Považská Bystrica attack 1.29 + Malženice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malženice scores more
45%
level
25%
Považská Bystrica scores more
29%

Malženice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Malženice 0–2 Považská Bystrica

Považská Bystrica beat Malženice 2-0 in 2. liga on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Malženice in Malženice.