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Považská Bystrica vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
CANC
13:30
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
3/14/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 16Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Považská Bystrica68%
×Draw19%
Kalná nad Hronom14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.26
Kalná nad Hronom
0.90

Považská Bystrica creates 151% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
2.91
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
0.70
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
86%
Považská Bystrica or Kalná nad Hronom
81%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
32%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
44%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
89%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
66%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
39%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
59%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
23%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
83%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.91 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.26

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Považská Bystrica defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
68%
level
19%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
14%

Považská Bystrica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Považská Bystrica vs Kalná nad Hronom — Match Preview

Považská Bystrica face Kalná nad Hronom on March 14, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Považská Bystrica host Kalná nad Hronom at Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.