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Kalná nad Hronom vs Považská Bystrica — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
2 – 2
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
8/8/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 1Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom29%
×Draw24%
Považská Bystrica47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.32
Považská Bystrica
1.73

Považská Bystrica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Považská Bystrica
2.24

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Považská Bystrica
1.00

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
53%
Kalná nad Hronom or Považská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
71%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
13%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
73%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
38%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
15%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
82%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
52%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
38%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Považská Bystrica attack 2.24 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
29%
level
24%
Považská Bystrica scores more
47%

Považská Bystrica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalná nad Hronom 2 – 2 Považská Bystrica

Kalná nad Hronom and Považská Bystrica drew 2-2 in 3. liga - West on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.