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Považská Bystrica vs Imeľ — 3. liga - West 2020

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
CANC
14:30
Imeľ
Imeľ
5/2/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Považská Bystrica73%
×Draw17%
Imeľ10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.27
Imeľ
0.69

Považská Bystrica creates 229% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
2.91
Imeľ
0.68

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
0.70
Imeľ
1.64

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Imeľ+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Imeľ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
90%
Považská Bystrica or Imeľ
83%
Draw or Imeľ
27%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
49%
Imeľ wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
90%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
66%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
39%
Imeľ 1+ goals
50%
Imeľ 2+ goals
15%
Imeľ 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
88%
Imeľ (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Imeľ away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.91 + Imeľ defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

Imeľ attack 0.68 + Považská Bystrica defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
73%
level
17%
Imeľ scores more
10%

Považská Bystrica at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Považská Bystrica host Imeľ

May 2, 2021: Považská Bystrica take on Imeľ in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Považská Bystrica host Imeľ at Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.