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Imeľ vs Považská Bystrica — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
0 – 0
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
9/27/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 8Štadión ŠK Nesvady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ24%
×Draw23%
Považská Bystrica52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.13
Považská Bystrica
1.77

Považská Bystrica creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Považská Bystrica
2.24

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Považská Bystrica
1.00

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
48%
Imeľ or Považská Bystrica
77%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
76%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
9%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
68%
Imeľ 2+ goals
31%
Imeľ 3+ goals
11%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
83%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
53%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
32%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Považská Bystrica attack 2.24 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Imeľ scores more
24%
level
23%
Považská Bystrica scores more
52%

Považská Bystrica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imeľ vs Považská Bystrica

Imeľ and Považská Bystrica drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión ŠK Nesvady in Nesvady.