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Považská Bystrica vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — 2. liga 2019

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
8/16/20252. liga2. liga · Round 4Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Považská Bystrica34%
×Draw24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
1.43
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.60

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
1.81
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.82

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
1.38
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.05

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
58%
Považská Bystrica or Dukla Banská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
66%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
16%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
76%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
42%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
17%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
80%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
45%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.82 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
34%
level
24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
42%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Považská Bystrica 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica

Dukla Banská Bystrica beat Považská Bystrica 1-0 in 2. liga on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica in Považská Bystrica.