Dukla Banská Bystrica 3–1 Považská Bystrica

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Považská Bystrica

3/6/2026

2. liga · Round 19Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica59%

×Draw21%

Považská Bystrica20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchPovažská Bystrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.15

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.10

Považská Bystrica

1.15

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 83% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 58 away

2.65

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.65

Považská Bystrica

1.29

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.00

Považská Bystrica

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Považská Bystrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

80%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Považská Bystrica

79%

Draw or Považská Bystrica

41%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

36%

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

88%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

62%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

35%

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

68%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

32%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

74%

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 2.65 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.10

Považská Bystrica attack 1.29 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

59%

level

21%

Považská Bystrica scores more

20%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff