Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Považská Bystrica vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dubnica
Dubnica
8/27/20222. liga2. liga · Round 7Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Považská Bystrica50%
×Draw23%
Dubnica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
1.85
Dubnica
1.29

Považská Bystrica creates 43% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
1.81
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
1.38
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
73%
Považská Bystrica or Dubnica
77%
Draw or Dubnica
50%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
28%
Dubnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
84%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
55%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
28%
Dubnica 1+ goals
72%
Dubnica 2+ goals
37%
Dubnica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
65%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
50%
level
23%
Dubnica scores more
27%

Považská Bystrica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Považská Bystrica 2–1 Dubnica

Považská Bystrica beat Dubnica 2-1 in 2. liga on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica in Považská Bystrica.