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Dubnica vs Považská Bystrica — 2. liga 2019

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
3/25/20232. liga2. liga · Round 22Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dubnica42%
×Draw25%
Považská Bystrica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.28

Dubnica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.44
Považská Bystrica
1.29

allows per match

Dubnica
1.27
Považská Bystrica
1.55

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
68%
Dubnica or Považská Bystrica
75%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
58%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
21%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
78%
Dubnica 2+ goals
44%
Dubnica 3+ goals
19%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
72%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
37%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
57%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.44 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Považská Bystrica attack 1.29 + Dubnica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dubnica scores more
42%
level
25%
Považská Bystrica scores more
32%

Dubnica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dubnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubnica vs Považská Bystrica

Považská Bystrica beat Dubnica 6-0 in 2. liga on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.