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Pouso Alegre vs Democrata GV — Mineiro - 1 2020

Pouso Alegre
Pouso Alegre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Democrata GV
Democrata GV
2/7/2026Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 7Estadio Do Manduzao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Pouso Alegre41%
×Draw27%
Democrata GV32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pouso Alegre
1.35
Democrata GV
1.17

Pouso Alegre creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

Pouso Alegre
1.39
Democrata GV
0.85

allows per match

Pouso Alegre
1.48
Democrata GV
1.31

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par
Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

Democrata GV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw
68%
Pouso Alegre or Democrata GV
73%
Draw or Democrata GV
59%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+
19%
Democrata GV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals
74%
Pouso Alegre 2+ goals
39%
Pouso Alegre 3+ goals
15%
Democrata GV 1+ goals
69%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
33%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)
56%
Democrata GV (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.39 + Democrata GV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Democrata GV attack 0.85 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more
41%
level
27%
Democrata GV scores more
32%

Pouso Alegre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pouso Alegre vs Democrata GV

Pouso Alegre beat Democrata GV 1-0 in Mineiro - 1 on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Do Manduzao in Pouso Alegre.