Democrata GV 1–0 Pouso Alegre: Result & Stats

Democrata GV

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pouso Alegre

2/20/2023

Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio José Mammoud Abbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Democrata GV46%

×Draw27%

Pouso Alegre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Democrata GVExpected goals in this matchPouso Alegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Democrata GV

1.39

Pouso Alegre

0.99

Democrata GV creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

1.19

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Democrata GV

1.00

Pouso Alegre

0.80

allows per match

Democrata GV

1.19

Pouso Alegre

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata GV ↓

Pouso Alegre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Democrata GV or draw

73%

Democrata GV or Pouso Alegre

73%

Draw or Pouso Alegre

54%

Winning margin

Democrata GV wins by 2+

22%

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Democrata GV 1+ goals

75%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

40%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

16%

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

63%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

26%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

63%

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata GV at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Pouso Alegre away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata GV attack 1.00 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pouso Alegre attack 0.80 + Democrata GV defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Democrata GV scores more

46%

level

27%

Pouso Alegre scores more

27%

Democrata GV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Democrata GV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff