Pouso Alegre 4–1 CAP: Result & Stats | Serie D

Pouso Alegre

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

CAP

5/11/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pouso Alegre60%

×Draw26%

CAP14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pouso AlegreExpected goals in this matchCAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.56

Pouso Alegre

1.50

CAP

0.56

Pouso Alegre creates 168% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

1.16

creates per match

0.58

0.55

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Pouso Alegre

1.16

CAP

0.58

allows per match

Pouso Alegre

0.55

CAP

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

CAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw

86%

Pouso Alegre or CAP

74%

Draw or CAP

40%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

32%

CAP wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

78%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

44%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

19%

CAP 1+ goals

43%

CAP 2+ goals

11%

CAP 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

81%

CAP (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.55 · 31 matches

CAP away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.16 + CAP defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

CAP attack 0.58 + Pouso Alegre defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more

60%

level

26%

CAP scores more

14%

Pouso Alegre at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff