CAP 0–2 Pouso Alegre: Result & Stats | Serie D

CAP

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pouso Alegre

7/6/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CAP43%

×Draw31%

Pouso Alegre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPExpected goals in this matchPouso Alegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.78

CAP

1.11

Pouso Alegre

0.78

CAP creates 42% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.06

creates per match

0.52

1.03

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

CAP

1.06

Pouso Alegre

0.52

allows per match

CAP

1.03

Pouso Alegre

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP+0.00on par

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Pouso Alegre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CAP or draw

74%

CAP or Pouso Alegre

69%

Draw or Pouso Alegre

57%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+

18%

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals

67%

CAP 2+ goals

30%

CAP 3+ goals

10%

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

54%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

18%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)

63%

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Pouso Alegre away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 1.06 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pouso Alegre attack 0.52 + CAP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CAP scores more

43%

level

31%

Pouso Alegre scores more

26%

CAP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff