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Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Bad Schallerbach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
FT
0 – 5
Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
9/5/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen37%
×Draw22%
Bad Schallerbach41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.72
Bad Schallerbach
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 75 away

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.61
Bad Schallerbach
1.48

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.14
Bad Schallerbach
1.83

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par
Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

Bad Schallerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw
59%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen or Bad Schallerbach
78%
Draw or Bad Schallerbach
63%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
19%
Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
82%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
51%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
25%
Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
84%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
54%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
48%
Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
37%
level
22%
Bad Schallerbach scores more
41%

Bad Schallerbach at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Bad Schallerbach

Bad Schallerbach beat Pöttinger Grieskirchen 5-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Fröling-Stadion in Grieskirchen.