Bad Schallerbach 3–0 Pöttinger Grieskirchen

Bad Schallerbach

FT

3 – 0

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

8/7/2021

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 1Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bad Schallerbach57%

×Draw20%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad SchallerbachExpected goals in this matchPöttinger Grieskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.34

Bad Schallerbach

2.21

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.34

Bad Schallerbach creates 65% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 29 away

2.15

creates per match

1.28

1.41

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach

2.15

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.28

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach

1.41

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw

77%

Bad Schallerbach or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

80%

Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

43%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+

35%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals

89%

Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals

65%

Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals

38%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

74%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

39%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)

71%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 2.15 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.21

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more

57%

level

20%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

23%

Bad Schallerbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff