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Potros Uaem vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
8/4/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Potros Uaem41%
×Draw28%
Leones Negros UDG31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.29
Leones Negros UDG
1.07

Potros Uaem creates 21% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 133 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.17
Leones Negros UDG
1.05

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.09
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
69%
Potros Uaem or Leones Negros UDG
72%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
59%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
19%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
72%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
37%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
14%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
66%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
29%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
57%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.17 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.05 + Potros Uaem defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
41%
level
28%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
31%

Potros Uaem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Potros Uaem 0–0 Leones Negros UDG

Potros Uaem and Leones Negros UDG drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).