Leones Negros UDG 3–2 Potros Uaem: Result & Stats

Leones Negros UDG

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Potros Uaem

10/6/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Leones Negros UDG51%

×Draw25%

Potros Uaem24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones Negros UDGExpected goals in this matchPotros Uaem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.01

Leones Negros UDG

1.61

Potros Uaem

1.01

Leones Negros UDG creates 59% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 25 away

1.75

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG

1.75

Potros Uaem

0.96

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG

1.06

Potros Uaem

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Potros Uaem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw

76%

Leones Negros UDG or Potros Uaem

75%

Draw or Potros Uaem

49%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+

27%

Potros Uaem wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals

80%

Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals

48%

Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals

22%

Potros Uaem 1+ goals

64%

Potros Uaem 2+ goals

27%

Potros Uaem 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)

68%

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Potros Uaem defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Potros Uaem attack 0.96 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more

51%

level

25%

Potros Uaem scores more

24%

Leones Negros UDG at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff