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Potros Uaem vs Dorados — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dorados
Dorados
1/26/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Potros Uaem48%
×Draw26%
Dorados26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.48
Dorados
1.02

Potros Uaem creates 45% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 121 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.17
Dorados
0.96

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.09
Dorados
1.79

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Dorados+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Dorados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
74%
Potros Uaem or Dorados
74%
Draw or Dorados
52%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
24%
Dorados wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
77%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
43%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
19%
Dorados 1+ goals
64%
Dorados 2+ goals
27%
Dorados 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
65%
Dorados (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Dorados away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.17 + Dorados defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dorados attack 0.96 + Potros Uaem defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
48%
level
26%
Dorados scores more
26%

Potros Uaem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Potros Uaem 2–1 Dorados

Potros Uaem beat Dorados 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).