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Dorados vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
8/12/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Banorte (Culiacán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Dorados45%
×Draw26%
Potros Uaem29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.44
Potros Uaem
1.10

Dorados creates 31% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Potros Uaem
0.96

allows per match

Dorados
1.24
Potros Uaem
1.48

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
71%
Dorados or Potros Uaem
74%
Draw or Potros Uaem
55%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
22%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
76%
Dorados 2+ goals
42%
Dorados 3+ goals
18%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
67%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
30%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
61%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.24 · 123 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Potros Uaem defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Potros Uaem attack 0.96 + Dorados defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dorados scores more
45%
level
26%
Potros Uaem scores more
29%

Dorados at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 0–1 Potros Uaem

Potros Uaem beat Dorados 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Banorte (Culiacán).