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Potros Uaem vs Correcaminos Uat — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
8/2/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Potros Uaem49%
×Draw26%
Correcaminos Uat25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.50
Correcaminos Uat
1.01

Potros Uaem creates 49% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 115 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.17
Correcaminos Uat
0.92

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.09
Correcaminos Uat
1.84

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Correcaminos Uat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
75%
Potros Uaem or Correcaminos Uat
74%
Draw or Correcaminos Uat
51%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
24%
Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
78%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
44%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
19%
Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
64%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
27%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
66%
Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Correcaminos Uat away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.17 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Correcaminos Uat attack 0.92 + Potros Uaem defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
49%
level
26%
Correcaminos Uat scores more
25%

Potros Uaem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potros Uaem vs Correcaminos Uat

Potros Uaem beat Correcaminos Uat 4-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).