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Correcaminos Uat vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
4/7/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Correcaminos Uat44%
×Draw26%
Potros Uaem30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.45
Potros Uaem
1.16

Correcaminos Uat creates 25% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 25 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Potros Uaem
0.96

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Potros Uaem
1.48

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
70%
Correcaminos Uat or Potros Uaem
74%
Draw or Potros Uaem
56%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
21%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
77%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
42%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
18%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
69%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
32%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
59%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Potros Uaem defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Potros Uaem attack 0.96 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
44%
level
26%
Potros Uaem scores more
30%

Correcaminos Uat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Correcaminos Uat vs Potros Uaem

Potros Uaem beat Correcaminos Uat 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria).