Potiguar Mossoró 2–3 ABC: Result & Stats

Potiguar Mossoró

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

ABC

1/28/2024

League #616 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Leonardo Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Potiguar Mossoró16%

×Draw20%

ABC64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Potiguar MossoróExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.13

Potiguar Mossoró

0.94

ABC

2.13

ABC creates 127% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.13

creates per match

2.75

1.50

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Potiguar Mossoró

1.13

ABC

2.75

allows per match

Potiguar Mossoró

1.50

ABC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Potiguar Mossoró+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potiguar Mossoró ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Potiguar Mossoró or draw

36%

Potiguar Mossoró or ABC

80%

Draw or ABC

84%

Winning margin

Potiguar Mossoró wins by 2+

5%

ABC wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Potiguar Mossoró 1+ goals

61%

Potiguar Mossoró 2+ goals

24%

Potiguar Mossoró 3+ goals

7%

ABC 1+ goals

88%

ABC 2+ goals

63%

ABC 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Potiguar Mossoró (draw refunded)

20%

ABC (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potiguar Mossoró at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

ABC away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potiguar Mossoró attack 1.13 + ABC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

ABC attack 2.75 + Potiguar Mossoró defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Potiguar Mossoró scores more

16%

level

20%

ABC scores more

64%

ABC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff