ABC 1–0 Potiguar Mossoró: Result & Stats

ABC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Potiguar Mossoró

2/7/2024

League #616 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ABC55%

×Draw29%

Potiguar Mossoró16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchPotiguar Mossoró

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.56

ABC

1.31

Potiguar Mossoró

0.56

ABC creates 134% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

0.63

0.50

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

ABC

1.75

Potiguar Mossoró

0.63

allows per match

ABC

0.50

Potiguar Mossoró

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Potiguar Mossoró+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Potiguar Mossoró →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ABC or draw

84%

ABC or Potiguar Mossoró

71%

Draw or Potiguar Mossoró

45%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

27%

Potiguar Mossoró wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

73%

ABC 2+ goals

38%

ABC 3+ goals

14%

Potiguar Mossoró 1+ goals

43%

Potiguar Mossoró 2+ goals

11%

Potiguar Mossoró 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

78%

Potiguar Mossoró (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Potiguar Mossoró away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.75 + Potiguar Mossoró defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Potiguar Mossoró attack 0.63 + ABC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ABC scores more

55%

level

29%

Potiguar Mossoró scores more

16%

ABC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff