Posušje 1–2 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Posušje

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

GOŠK Gabela

11/30/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 15Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Posušje52%

×Draw24%

GOŠK Gabela24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PosušjeExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Posušje

1.67

GOŠK Gabela

1.04

Posušje creates 61% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

0.93

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Posušje

1.14

GOŠK Gabela

1.15

allows per match

Posušje

0.93

GOŠK Gabela

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Posušje or draw

76%

Posušje or GOŠK Gabela

76%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

48%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+

28%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals

81%

Posušje 2+ goals

50%

Posušje 3+ goals

23%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

65%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

28%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)

69%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Posušje scores more

52%

level

24%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

24%

Posušje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff