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GOŠK Gabela vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Posušje
Posušje
3/30/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 24Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela32%
×Draw26%
Posušje41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.18
Posušje
1.38

Posušje creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 85 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.84
Posušje
0.73

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Posušje
1.52

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
59%
GOŠK Gabela or Posušje
74%
Draw or Posušje
68%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
13%
Posušje wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
69%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
33%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
12%
Posušje 1+ goals
75%
Posušje 2+ goals
40%
Posušje 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
44%
Posušje (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.18

Posušje attack 0.73 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
32%
level
26%
Posušje scores more
41%

Posušje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: GOŠK Gabela 0–1 Posušje

Posušje beat GOŠK Gabela 1-0 in Premijer Liga on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović in Gabela.