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Posušje vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
3 – 1
Čapljina
Čapljina
4/3/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Posušje70%
×Draw19%
Čapljina11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
2.12
Čapljina
0.72

Posušje creates 194% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Posušje
2.27
Čapljina
0.91

allows per match

Posušje
0.53
Čapljina
1.96

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
89%
Posušje or Čapljina
81%
Draw or Čapljina
30%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
45%
Čapljina wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
88%
Posušje 2+ goals
62%
Posušje 3+ goals
35%
Čapljina 1+ goals
51%
Čapljina 2+ goals
16%
Čapljina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
86%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 2.27 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.12

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Posušje defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Posušje scores more
70%
level
19%
Čapljina scores more
11%

Posušje at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posušje vs Čapljina

Posušje beat Čapljina 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.