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Čapljina vs Posušje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
FT
1 – 1
Posušje
Posušje
9/5/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Čapljina37%
×Draw31%
Posušje32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
1.02
Posušje
0.92

Čapljina creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
Posušje
1.00

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
Posušje
0.47

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
68%
Čapljina or Posušje
69%
Draw or Posušje
63%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
14%
Posušje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
64%
Čapljina 2+ goals
27%
Čapljina 3+ goals
8%
Posušje 1+ goals
60%
Posušje 2+ goals
23%
Posušje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
54%
Posušje (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Posušje away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Posušje defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.02

Posušje attack 1.00 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Čapljina scores more
37%
level
31%
Posušje scores more
32%

Čapljina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čapljina vs Posušje

Čapljina and Posušje drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bjelave in Čapljina.