Posta Rangers FC 6–2 Nakumatt: Result & Stats

Posta Rangers FC

FT

6 – 2

Nakumatt

4/14/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 23Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Posta Rangers FC45%

×Draw27%

Nakumatt28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posta Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchNakumatt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Posta Rangers FC

1.40

Nakumatt

1.04

Posta Rangers FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 38 away

0.96

creates per match

0.95

1.14

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC

0.96

Nakumatt

0.95

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

Nakumatt

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Nakumatt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw

72%

Posta Rangers FC or Nakumatt

73%

Draw or Nakumatt

55%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

22%

Nakumatt wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

75%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

41%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

17%

Nakumatt 1+ goals

65%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

28%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

62%

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 145 matches

Nakumatt away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Nakumatt defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nakumatt attack 0.95 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more

45%

level

27%

Nakumatt scores more

28%

Posta Rangers FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff