Nakumatt 1–2 Posta Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Nakumatt

FT

1 – 2

Posta Rangers FC

12/16/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 2Afraha Stadium (Nakuru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt31%

×Draw25%

Posta Rangers FC44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NakumattExpected goals in this matchPosta Rangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.58

Nakumatt

1.28

Posta Rangers FC

1.58

Posta Rangers FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 149 away

1.43

creates per match

1.03

2.14

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Nakumatt

1.43

Posta Rangers FC

1.03

allows per match

Nakumatt

2.14

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Posta Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw

56%

Nakumatt or Posta Rangers FC

75%

Draw or Posta Rangers FC

69%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+

13%

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals

72%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

37%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

14%

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

79%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

47%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

41%

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nakumatt scores more

31%

level

25%

Posta Rangers FC scores more

44%

Posta Rangers FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff