Posta Rangers FC 0–1 Muhoroni Youth: Result & Stats

Posta Rangers FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Muhoroni Youth

12/17/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 14Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Posta Rangers FC33%

×Draw33%

Muhoroni Youth34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posta Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchMuhoroni Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.92

Posta Rangers FC

0.89

Muhoroni Youth

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 17 away

0.96

creates per match

0.71

1.14

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC

0.96

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

Muhoroni Youth

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Muhoroni Youth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw

66%

Posta Rangers FC or Muhoroni Youth

67%

Draw or Muhoroni Youth

67%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

11%

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

59%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

22%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

6%

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

60%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

23%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

49%

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more

33%

level

33%

Muhoroni Youth scores more

34%

Muhoroni Youth at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff