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Muhoroni Youth vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
6/23/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth30%
×Draw30%
Posta Rangers FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muhoroni Youth
0.92
Posta Rangers FC
1.10

Posta Rangers FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 149 away

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth
0.71
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth
1.18
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw
61%
Muhoroni Youth or Posta Rangers FC
70%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
70%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
11%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
60%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
23%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
7%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
67%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
30%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
43%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more
30%
level
30%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
39%

Posta Rangers FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muhoroni Youth vs Posta Rangers FC

Muhoroni Youth and Posta Rangers FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.