Posta Rangers FC 0–3 KCB: Result & Stats

Posta Rangers FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

KCB

S. Etyang 88'

F. Kahiro 45+2', 29'

9/21/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 3Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Posta Rangers FC29%

×Draw30%

KCB41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posta Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchKCB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.15

Posta Rangers FC

0.91

KCB

1.15

KCB creates 26% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 130 away

0.96

creates per match

1.15

1.14

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC

0.96

KCB

1.15

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

KCB

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

KCB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw

59%

Posta Rangers FC or KCB

70%

Draw or KCB

71%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

10%

KCB wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

60%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

23%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

6%

KCB 1+ goals

68%

KCB 2+ goals

32%

KCB 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

41%

KCB (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

KCB away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + KCB defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

KCB attack 1.15 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more

29%

level

30%

KCB scores more

41%

KCB at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

F. Kahiro

45+2'

F. Kahiro

88'

S. Etyang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff