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KCB vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
6/15/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

KCB39%
×Draw30%
Posta Rangers FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.14
Posta Rangers FC
1.00

KCB creates 14% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 149 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KCB or draw
68%
KCB or Posta Rangers FC
70%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
61%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
16%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
68%
KCB 2+ goals
32%
KCB 3+ goals
11%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
63%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
26%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
55%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KCB scores more
39%
level
30%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
32%

KCB at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 0–0 Posta Rangers FC

KCB and Posta Rangers FC drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Police Sacco Stadium in Nairobi.